With his eye firmly focused on the horizon, futurist Ian Morrison looks at where we’re going and how to plan for the challenges and opportunities ahead.
Using the present to discover implications for the future, Ian Morrison helps audiences plan for long-term success by identifying the driving forces shaping their destiny. Drawing on cutting-edge research and practical experience as a consultant in the field, Morrison shows listeners how to recognize the unexpected opportunities that transform an organization, an industry or a life.
With his signature Scottish wit, Morrison engages audiences and shows them how to manage the velocity of change and turn it into tangible bottom-line solutions. Author or co-author of seven books, including the best-seller The Second Curve: Managing the Velocity of Change, Morrison heads his own consulting firm and is chairman of the Health Futures Forum. Previously he served as president of The Institute for the Future. With his eye firmly focused on the horizon, futurist Ian Morrison looks at where we’re going and how to plan for the challenges and opportunities ahead.
The Second Curve: Managing the Velocity of Change
The thesis of Ian Morrison’s The Second Curve: Managing the Velocity of Change) is that most businesses in most industries are going along quite nicely on their first curve (their core business) where they make all their profit and revenue. Then along comes a second curve – a new business or completely new way of doing business – that threatens to replace the first curve.
The second curve is driven by the confluence of three powerful driving forces: new technologies, such as the Internet; new consumers, who are smarter, more affluent, more skeptical and more demanding than the previous generation; and new markets, such as China, with its 1.2 billion consumers. The challenge is to gauge how fast the second curve will take over and develop strategy accordingly. All of the current profit is on the First Curve, all of the future growth is on the Second Curve. But there is a natural human tendency to overestimate the impact of phenomena in the short run, and underestimate it in the long run. The key is to understand and manage the velocity of change.
The Future of the Healthcare Marketplace
Healthcare is in a state of flux. Managed care faltered as it came under increasing scrutiny by the media, the consumer, and the regulators. Healthcare costs are rising and the burden is increasingly being shifted to consumers. Large scale vertical integration in healthcare has not taken place, rather we have seen massive horizontal consolidation of pharmaceutical companies, health plans, hospital systems, and to a lesser extent physician groups. Increased consumerism amplified by the internet creates new opportunities and new challenges.
The industry is looking for a new direction and a new vision, but we fall prey to fads, as organizations are stretched thin by the roller coaster of change in management philosophy, reimbursement, and medical technology. This presentation will focus on the political, economic, and strategic context of change in healthcare and examine how the various actors are preparing for the future. It will identify the leadership challenges and opportunities that lie ahead and will provide strategic insights on how organizations and individuals can flourish in the new millennium in healthcare.
IAN MORRISON BOOKS:
Ian is an internationally known author, consultant, and futurist specializing in long-term forecasting and planning with particular emphasis on health care and the changing business environment. He combines research and consulting skills with an incisive Scottish wit to help public and private organizations plan their longer-term future.
Ian has written, lectured, and consulted on a wide variety of forecasting, strategy, and health care topics for government, industry, and a variety of nonprofit organizations in North America, Europe, and Asia. He has spoken to a range of audiences from the boards of Fortune 100 companies to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing. Ian has worked with more than 100 Fortune 500 companies in health care, manufacturing, information technology, and financial services. Recent client sponsors include Microsoft, Pfizer and Kaiser Permanente. He is a frequent commentator on the future for television, radio, and the print media.
Ian is the author of Leading Change in Health Care: Building a Viable System for Today and Tomorrow (AHA Press/Health Forum, 2011), and Healthcare in the New Millennium: Vision, Values and Leadership (Jossey-Bass, 2002). His previous book: The Second Curve – Managing The Velocity of Change (Ballantine, 1996) was a New York Times Business Bestseller and Businessweek Bestseller. Ian has co-authored several books and chapters, including Future Tense: The Business Realities of the Next Ten Years (William Morrow, 1994) and Looking Ahead at American Health Care (McGraw-Hill, 1988). He also has co-authored numerous journal articles for publications such as Chief Executive, Encyclopaedia Britannica, Across the Board, The British Medical Journal, New England Journal of Medicine, and Health Affairs.
Ian is a founding partner in Strategic Health Perspectives (SHP), (a forecasting service for clients in the health care industry), along with joint venture partners Harris Interactive and the Harvard School of Public Health’s Department of Health Policy and Management. Ian is President Emeritus of the Institute for the Future (IFTF). From 1996-1999, Ian was retained by Accenture as Chairman of the Health Futures Forum, in that capacity he chaired a number of Health Futures Forums in Asia, Australasia, and North America.
Before coming to IFTF in 1985, Ian spent seven years in British Columbia, Canada, in a variety of research, teaching, and consulting positions. He holds an interdisciplinary Ph.D. in urban studies from the University of British Columbia; an M.A. in geography from the University of Edinburgh, Scotland, and a graduate degree in urban planning from the University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne, England. He is a member of the Board of Directors of SFN Group (an NYSE company); a past director of the Health Research and Education Trust (HRET), the research and education arm of the American Hospital Association; a past director of the Center for Health Design; and a director and chair of the California Health Care Foundation. Ian also serves as a member of the Stakeholders Advisory Committee of the Program for Health Systems Improvement at Harvard University.
Ian is a proud member of GlobalScot, a network of Scottish expatriates convened by the new Scottish Executive to help promote Scotland’s economic development interests internationally. True to his Scottish roots, Ian is an avid, though average, golfer.